Monday, March 28, 2011

NBA/NCAAB 2010-11 Season Records and Wrap UP

The NBA Computer Picks once again had fewer picks, but they did post their 4th straight season of +60% ATS. Maybe it's finally time to increase our units...if anything justifies higher risk/reward...they do.

The biggest disappointment was the performance of NCAAB in general...and the NCAAB Home System I in particular. We were probably due for a pullback. This is a tough business and nothing works all the time.

Every season is different, sometimes we do incredibly well and sometimes things are more average.

For next season....it will be the NBA Computer Picks and I look forward to a full season of the NBA TraderZ's.  The NBA TraderZ's have a LOT of potential but are probably best suited for the Nov.-Feb. time frame...same as the Computer picks.

Next season NCAAB will include the two Home Systems and the Counter system looks like a valuable addition. The only thing I might add is an NCAAB dog system which should help counter seasons like this one. Nothing is broke, but it was an off year by our standards.

Thank you very much for your loyal following and your business. I try to keep it real...and I'm not sure a lot of bettors understand how hard this really is to do, year after year with real records that don't use ridiculous unit manipulation.

 We can't hit +70% every year. I wish it could have been better, but the year wasn't a complete loss either. And we definitely kept moving forward with extra tools to use next season.

I run systems and try to deliver value from those systems to you with personal service by emailing directly. Touts are all about "marketing" and unit manipulation. I hope you keep that in mind and remember there is no easy answer to successful wagering.

Thanks again...feel free to drop me a line anytime...but now it's time for me to get ready for baseball.

Best regards,
MJ
mistermj.com



2010-11 NBA COMPUTER PICKS


18-­10-­064.29%+$­3500View

2010-11 NBA TraderZ
12-10 54.5% ( emailed record does not include Feb. 9 2 unit win Chic/Utah Under)
Unofficial record is 15-10 which included the 2 unit win and two picks too late for email.

2010-11 NBA Beer Money O/U's (An experiment discontinued because of marginal value)
40-34-1 54.05%
The formula was posted at the link below. It has some value but for my purposes I've chosen to look at other things.
http://s1.zetaboards.com/MisterMJ_Sports/topic/3878940/2/#new

==============================

2011 March Madness System
4-­4-­050.00%-­200View

2010-11 NCAAB Counter System


14-­11-­156.00%+­950View

2010-11 NCAAB Home System I
7-­11-­238.89%-­2550View

2010-11 NCAAB Home System II


7-­6-­053.85%+­200View

Friday, March 18, 2011

NBA Computer Picks Record 2010-2011 and Overall Record Since 2007

The NBA Computer picks are now done for the 2010- 2011 season.

The Final record is once again well above 60% ATS for the 4th straight season

NBA Computer Picks 2010-2011

18-­10-­0 64.29% +$­3500 View

Overall NBA Computer Picks Record (2007 to current)
177-107 62.3% + 59.3 units +$29,650

Friday, October 15, 2010

NCAA Basketball Home System II 28-8 77.77% ATS

The Home System II

 09/10 Season

28-8 77.77% ATS
========================
The Home System II was found as a subset of last years NCAAB Lean System and is explained below.

NCAAB Lean System

2009-2010 SeasonWLTPctUnits
ATS Picks53-31-263.10%+9450
O/U Picks30-26-153.57%+700
All Picks83-57-359.29%+10150

http://contests.covers.com/SportsContests/profile.aspx?userID=342704&sportID=7&type=3

The Lean System record shown above, also had a sub group of home teams <-10 point spread. The record was 28-8 77.77% ATS

This will become it's own system in the future and will simply be called The Home System II to go along with our other NCAAB Home System which has a two year record well above 70% ATS.

 

NCAA Basketball Home System I 77% ATS

NCAAB Home System the last two seasons overall record
 
30-9 77% ATS

A very select and very successful NCAA Basketball system for 2 full seasons. 


This system starts with NCAA Conference play.

NCAAB Home System 08/09 Season 16-4 80% ATS
http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=659904

NCAAB Home System 09/10 Season
14-5-1 73.68% +850 View
 

MisterMJ's NBA Computer Picks System +62 % ATS

The NBA Computer Picks system is now entering it's fourth NBA season. 

There has never been a losing month...there has never been a losing year...and there has never been a year under 60% ATS. This has been a very robust and stable system, always solid...sometimes spectacular, nearly 66% ATS in 08/09 season on nearly 100 picks.

The long term record of 62.1 % ATS based on 256 picks over 3 full NBA seasons is unmatched. In addition to that...the lines and picks were documented at Wagerline and were always widely available and honest lines.In fact...most often...if you had a good off shore book...you could do better than most of my posted lines.

I am adamant about using fair lines for all of my systems whenever possible. If you can't re-create my results when you follow the picks...there is no point in doing this.

This system just plain works...year in...and year out. 


When I try to build long term, successful, repeatable, handicapping systems...this is the gold standard example that I shoot for.

NBA Computer Picks Overall Record Since 2007 Season

159-97 62.1% + 52.3 units +$26,150
http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=531283
======================================================
NBA Computer Picks Yearly Breakdowns

09/10 NBA Computer Picks


14-9-0 60.87% +2050 View
 ------------------------------------------------
08/09 NBA Record
 
61-32-1 65.6% +25.8 Units

http://tinyurl.com/as2l49
-------------------------------------------------
07-08 NBA Record

84-56 60% + 22.4 units
(Picks documented in this forum : http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=531283)







Thursday, September 2, 2010

NFL Pick 3

Overall, the NFL Pick 3 System has done very well...especially so, if you are willing to take me at my word about the 2007 seasons undocumented record. 

NFL Pick 3 Overall Record (2007, 2008 & 2009) 86-62-5 58.1% +$8500

Or the last 2 seasons (2008 & 2009) of documented picks together are 53-44-5 54.6% +$1900

At worst, this system has lost a few units of juice in 09 when it broke even at 24-24-3 and it has produced plus units 2 out of the past 3 seasons.

In 2007 it was spectacular, and I used it to take 2nd place in the Cappersmall Pick 3 NFL contest. That is what gave me the impetus to develop the system, and start tracking it that year.
================================================================
 NFL Computer Picks 07 Season (Pick 3)

33-18 64% $6600 (Not documented , for my information only)

NFL Computer Picks 08 Season (Pick 3)
29-20-2 59.18%+$3500 View 
http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?p=6338429#post6338429


NFL Computer Picks 09 Season (Pick 3)

24-24-350.00% -$1600


View
 http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=654544&page=18


NFL Pick 5 System Records

I did a screen grab of the NFL pick 5 Record for 2008. I'm not sure how long Covers will cache past contests.

Using the Pick 5 System , I came in 12th place out of 1556 contestants in Covers "Beat the Prez NFL Challenge"

NFL Pick 5 2008
51-32-261.45%+$7900View      


Date WLT Pct Net Units Record
12/28/08 4-1-0 80.00% +1450 Detail
12/21/08 2-1-0 66.67% +450 Detail
12/20/08 0-2-0 0.00% -1100 Detail
12/14/08 3-1-1 75.00% +950 Detail
12/08/08 0-1-0 0.00% -550 Detail
12/07/08 3-1-0 75.00% +950 Detail
11/30/08 1-3-0 25.00% -1150 Detail
11/27/08 1-0-0 100.00% +500 Detail
11/24/08 0-1-0 0.00% -550 Detail
11/23/08 3-1-0 75.00% +950 Detail
11/17/08 0-1-0 0.00% -550 Detail
11/16/08 3-1-0 75.00% +950 Detail
11/10/08 0-1-0 0.00% -550 Detail
11/09/08 2-2-0 50.00% -100 Detail
11/03/08 1-0-0 100.00% +500 Detail
11/02/08 2-2-0 50.00% -100 Detail
10/27/08 1-0-0 100.00% +500 Detail
10/26/08 3-1-0 75.00% +950 Detail
10/19/08 3-2-0 60.00% +400 Detail
10/12/08 4-1-0 80.00% +1450 Detail
10/05/08 4-1-0 80.00% +1450 Detail
09/28/08 1-4-0 20.00% -1700 Detail
09/21/08 4-1-0 80.00% +1450 Detail
09/14/08 2-2-1 50.00% -100 Detail
09/07/08 4-1-0 80.00% +1450 Detail

============================
 In 2009 the NFL Pick 5 did not do nearly as good as the 2008 season. The NFL Pick 3 and the NFL Pick 5 are exactly the same systems...but you get two more picks with the Pick5. In the future I am going to concentrate on just the NFL Pick 3. The NFL Pick 5 will be discontinued, in favor of the NFL Pick 3 which has a longer and better history.

NFL Pick 5 2009



38-42-5 47.50% -4100 View





 http://contests.covers.com/sportscontests/officeLeaders.aspx?ID=14922
Date WLT Pct Net Units Record
01/03/10 1-3-1 25.00% -1150 Detail
12/27/09 2-2-1 50.00% -100 Detail
12/21/09 0-1-0 0.00% -550 Detail
12/20/09 2-2-0 50.00% -100 Detail
12/13/09 2-3-0 40.00% -650 Detail
12/07/09 0-1-0 0.00% -550 Detail
12/06/09 3-1-0 75.00% +950 Detail
11/30/09 1-0-0 100.00% +500 Detail
11/29/09 1-1-1 50.00% -50 Detail
11/26/09 1-0-0 100.00% +500 Detail
11/22/09 2-3-0 40.00% -650 Detail
11/16/09 1-0-0 100.00% +500 Detail
11/15/09 0-2-1 0.00% -1100 Detail
11/12/09 1-0-0 100.00% +500 Detail
11/08/09 2-3-0 40.00% -650 Detail
11/02/09 0-1-0 0.00% -550 Detail
11/01/09 1-3-0 25.00% -1150 Detail
10/26/09 1-0-0 100.00% +500 Detail
10/25/09 2-1-1 66.67% +450 Detail
10/19/09 1-0-0 100.00% +500 Detail
10/18/09 3-1-0 75.00% +950 Detail
10/12/09 0-1-0 0.00% -550 Detail
10/11/09 2-2-0 50.00% -100 Detail
10/05/09 1-0-0 100.00% +500 Detail
10/04/09 2-2-0 50.00% -100 Detail
09/27/09 2-3-0 40.00% -650 Detail
09/21/09 0-1-0 0.00% -550 Detail
09/20/09 2-2-0 50.00% -100 Detail
09/13/09 2-3-0 40.00% -650 Detai