Thursday, September 2, 2010

NFL Pick 3

Overall, the NFL Pick 3 System has done very well...especially so, if you are willing to take me at my word about the 2007 seasons undocumented record. 

NFL Pick 3 Overall Record (2007, 2008 & 2009) 86-62-5 58.1% +$8500

Or the last 2 seasons (2008 & 2009) of documented picks together are 53-44-5 54.6% +$1900

At worst, this system has lost a few units of juice in 09 when it broke even at 24-24-3 and it has produced plus units 2 out of the past 3 seasons.

In 2007 it was spectacular, and I used it to take 2nd place in the Cappersmall Pick 3 NFL contest. That is what gave me the impetus to develop the system, and start tracking it that year.
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 NFL Computer Picks 07 Season (Pick 3)

33-18 64% $6600 (Not documented , for my information only)

NFL Computer Picks 08 Season (Pick 3)
29-20-2 59.18%+$3500 View 
http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?p=6338429#post6338429


NFL Computer Picks 09 Season (Pick 3)

24-24-350.00% -$1600


View
 http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=654544&page=18


NFL Pick 5 System Records

I did a screen grab of the NFL pick 5 Record for 2008. I'm not sure how long Covers will cache past contests.

Using the Pick 5 System , I came in 12th place out of 1556 contestants in Covers "Beat the Prez NFL Challenge"

NFL Pick 5 2008
51-32-261.45%+$7900View      


Date WLT Pct Net Units Record
12/28/08 4-1-0 80.00% +1450 Detail
12/21/08 2-1-0 66.67% +450 Detail
12/20/08 0-2-0 0.00% -1100 Detail
12/14/08 3-1-1 75.00% +950 Detail
12/08/08 0-1-0 0.00% -550 Detail
12/07/08 3-1-0 75.00% +950 Detail
11/30/08 1-3-0 25.00% -1150 Detail
11/27/08 1-0-0 100.00% +500 Detail
11/24/08 0-1-0 0.00% -550 Detail
11/23/08 3-1-0 75.00% +950 Detail
11/17/08 0-1-0 0.00% -550 Detail
11/16/08 3-1-0 75.00% +950 Detail
11/10/08 0-1-0 0.00% -550 Detail
11/09/08 2-2-0 50.00% -100 Detail
11/03/08 1-0-0 100.00% +500 Detail
11/02/08 2-2-0 50.00% -100 Detail
10/27/08 1-0-0 100.00% +500 Detail
10/26/08 3-1-0 75.00% +950 Detail
10/19/08 3-2-0 60.00% +400 Detail
10/12/08 4-1-0 80.00% +1450 Detail
10/05/08 4-1-0 80.00% +1450 Detail
09/28/08 1-4-0 20.00% -1700 Detail
09/21/08 4-1-0 80.00% +1450 Detail
09/14/08 2-2-1 50.00% -100 Detail
09/07/08 4-1-0 80.00% +1450 Detail

============================
 In 2009 the NFL Pick 5 did not do nearly as good as the 2008 season. The NFL Pick 3 and the NFL Pick 5 are exactly the same systems...but you get two more picks with the Pick5. In the future I am going to concentrate on just the NFL Pick 3. The NFL Pick 5 will be discontinued, in favor of the NFL Pick 3 which has a longer and better history.

NFL Pick 5 2009



38-42-5 47.50% -4100 View





 http://contests.covers.com/sportscontests/officeLeaders.aspx?ID=14922
Date WLT Pct Net Units Record
01/03/10 1-3-1 25.00% -1150 Detail
12/27/09 2-2-1 50.00% -100 Detail
12/21/09 0-1-0 0.00% -550 Detail
12/20/09 2-2-0 50.00% -100 Detail
12/13/09 2-3-0 40.00% -650 Detail
12/07/09 0-1-0 0.00% -550 Detail
12/06/09 3-1-0 75.00% +950 Detail
11/30/09 1-0-0 100.00% +500 Detail
11/29/09 1-1-1 50.00% -50 Detail
11/26/09 1-0-0 100.00% +500 Detail
11/22/09 2-3-0 40.00% -650 Detail
11/16/09 1-0-0 100.00% +500 Detail
11/15/09 0-2-1 0.00% -1100 Detail
11/12/09 1-0-0 100.00% +500 Detail
11/08/09 2-3-0 40.00% -650 Detail
11/02/09 0-1-0 0.00% -550 Detail
11/01/09 1-3-0 25.00% -1150 Detail
10/26/09 1-0-0 100.00% +500 Detail
10/25/09 2-1-1 66.67% +450 Detail
10/19/09 1-0-0 100.00% +500 Detail
10/18/09 3-1-0 75.00% +950 Detail
10/12/09 0-1-0 0.00% -550 Detail
10/11/09 2-2-0 50.00% -100 Detail
10/05/09 1-0-0 100.00% +500 Detail
10/04/09 2-2-0 50.00% -100 Detail
09/27/09 2-3-0 40.00% -650 Detail
09/21/09 0-1-0 0.00% -550 Detail
09/20/09 2-2-0 50.00% -100 Detail
09/13/09 2-3-0 40.00% -650 Detai







Wednesday, September 1, 2010

NFL EMO's Record & Explanation

NFL EMO's Record & Explanation

The NFL EMO System is a contrarian system based on my own set of Emotional factors. The theory is that human emotion is predictable...and the human response to certain factors is predictable.

The NFL season is very short...each game is very much like a battle...the season as a whole is a war. It is a very very emotional and violent game...with many ups and downs over the season.

So far...these EMO factors have done a good job of predicting ATS winners...based on predictable patterns of human behavior triggered by game events and outcomes.

EMO's can only start in week #2 because the first week of regular season is needed as the first set up for any picks. For whatever reason...they do not seem to do well after about week #12. (My guess is that teams fall out of playoff races...and this changes emotional feedback as some teams lose hope for the season, and others lose an edge locking in playoff spots early.)

I make every attempt to document any and ALL of my system picks for permanent record keeping.

The 2009 EMO record was documented at Wagerline through week 17 for data gathering...but the record should only count through week # 12 as that is the cutoff for wagering on these picks.

2009 EMO Record Week # 2 - #12
21-16 +$2150 57.5% ATS


11/29/09 2-1-0 66.67% +450 Detail
11/26/09 1-0-0 100.00% +500 Detail
11/22/09 0-2-0 0.00% -1100 Detail
11/15/09 0-2-0 0.00% -1100 Detail
11/12/09 1-0-0 100.00% +500 Detail
11/08/09 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
11/01/09 3-1-0 75.00% +950 Detail
10/25/09 2-1-0 66.67% +450 Detail
10/18/09 3-1-0 75.00% +950 Detail
10/12/09 0-1-0 0.00% -550 Detail
10/11/09 1-2-0 33.33% -600 Detail
10/05/09 1-0-0 100.00% +500 Detail
10/04/09 3-1-0 75.00% +950 Detail
09/28/09 1-0-0 100.00% +500 Detail
09/27/09 1-2-0 33.33% -600 Detail
09/21/09 0-1-0 0.00% -550 Detail
09/20/09 3-1-0 75.00% +950 Detail

http://contests.covers.com/sportscontests/officeRecordsByDate.aspx?type=2&interval=overall&contestID=15077&ur=342704&sportID=1

 Posted at the RX Forum:
http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=654544

The 2008 EMO Record Week #2-#12 was
33-18 64.7% ATS +$6600

Unfortunately as an experimental system it was not documented at Wagerline...the record is using midweek Wagerline odds and from my personal notes as the EMO's were used in the Pick 3 and Pick 5 Systems as an indicator.

I also have a 2007 EMO record filed away on hard copy...which will be posted but it was +60% ATS Week 2-12 as well.