Thursday, August 16, 2012

MisterMJ 2011 NFL Documented Records & Summary

The 2011 NFL season was a breakout year for using advanced NFL Passer rating differential stats as a key component to get back on track in NFL handicapping. The NFL Computer Picks and the 10/10 System use  the NFL passer rating differential in different ways but the results were strong with both systems. There is some system over lap with some picks.

2011 NFL EMO's had a flat to sligthly down year but it is still a viable system with an outstanding long term record of NFL handicapping success. With the small sample of NFL games we must look at long term records and realize any one year can and will have it's ups and downs.

All things considered we have three solid weapons for NFL handicapping success. Plus the added bonus of including last years successful NCAAF system to the NFL Package.

2011 NCAAF System Record 24-14-0 63.16% ATS
 http://mistermjrecords.blogspot.com/2012/08/mistermj-ncaa-football-2011-documented.html

New to 2012! The NFL and NCAAF packages are combined for the low price of $29.99. All NFL and NCAAF College System Picks including College Bowls are combined in one package for outstanding value at only $29.99 for the entire package.

Our theory is to use multiple systems to deliver the best value in the long run. 


NFL/ NCAAF Package for $29.99 Guaranteed! Sign up at mistermj.com or use the Paypal button on this site.


Thanks. MJ

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2011 NFL Computer Picks

15-8-1 65.22% +$1640 View View

DateWLTPctNet UnitsRecord
01/01/121-1-050.00%-20Detail
12/25/111-0-0100.00%+200Detail
12/19/111-0-0100.00%+200Detail
12/11/110-2-00.00%-440Detail
12/04/111-1-050.00%-20Detail
11/20/111-1-150.00%-20Detail
11/13/110-1-00.00%-220Detail
11/06/113-0-0100.00%+800Detail
10/30/114-1-080.00%+780Detail
10/23/113-1-075.00%+380Detai

Documented at Wagerline:
http://contests.covers.com/sportscontests/officeRecordsByDate.aspx?type=2&interval=overall&contestID=18985&ur=342704&sportID=1

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2011 NFL 10/10 System 

12-7-0 63.16% $2150 View View

DateWLTPctNet UnitsRecord
12/18/110-2-00.00%-1100Detail
12/11/110-1-00.00%-550Detail
12/04/110-1-00.00%-550Detail
11/27/111-0-0100.00%+500Detail
11/20/112-0-0100.00%+1000Detail
11/06/111-0-0100.00%+500Detail
10/30/113-1-075.00%+950Detail
10/23/113-1-075.00%+950Detail
10/16/112-1-066.67%+450Detai

Documented at Wagerline:
http://contests.covers.com/sportscontests/officeRecordsByDate.aspx?type=2&interval=overall&contestID=18965&ur=342704&sportID=1

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EMO NFL System  (2007-2011 Record 82-62, 56.94% ATS)

2011 EMO's
12-14-2 46.15% -$1700 View View

Documented at Wagerline:
http://contests.covers.com/sportscontests/officeLeaders.aspx?ID=18803





Saturday, August 11, 2012

MisterMJ NCAA Football 2011 Documented Record

The NCAAF Computer Picks were offered as the NCAAF package to subscribers in 2011. 

For 2012 the same system will be included with all of  the NFL package picks together as one package.

Both NFL/ NCAAF for $29.99 Sign up at mistermj.com



2011 NCAAF Computer Picks (includes Bowl selections as part of the same system)


24-14-0 63.16% +$1500 (+7.5 units $200 = 1 unit)View View
Documented at Wagerline:
http://contests.covers.com/sportscontests/officeLeaders.aspx?ID=18980

DateWLTPctNet UnitsRecord
01/06/121-0-0100.00%+200Detail
01/03/120-1-00.00%-220Detail
01/02/121-0-0100.00%+200Detail
12/31/111-0-0100.00%+200Detail
12/30/111-0-0100.00%+200Detail
12/29/110-1-00.00%-220Detail
12/28/111-0-0100.00%+200Detail
12/03/110-1-00.00%-220Detail
11/26/112-0-0100.00%+400Detail
11/25/111-0-0100.00%+200Detail
11/19/112-1-066.67%+180Detail
11/12/113-1-075.00%+380Detail
11/05/111-2-033.33%-240Detail
11/04/111-0-0100.00%+200Detail
10/29/118-3-072.73%+720Detail
10/22/111-4-020.00%-680Detai

Friday, March 30, 2012

MisterMJ MLB History & Records 2010 / 2011 (Leading to 2012 MLB (Super Dog) System

Past records for the 2010 / 2011 seasons were documented whenever possible, using Wagerline. It was not always possible to document such things as Run Lines or back tested research but most of this was done in an open environment and shared with donation partners through emails and use of the Sports forum.

We have had success and failure and learned a lot from the last two seasons.

 Every single game (approximately 9720 MLB games ! ) were scanned for statistical research, and experimentation with handicapping theory.

The bad news is that it was all hard to understand, and very complicated to implement.

The good news is that the work is behind us. It was necessary.

Going forward the CBS (2 game RL Chase) remains it's own system.

Everything else will be boiled down into one system that leverages the statistical filters with special situations in baseball provided by the large number of games (4860 per season) and the series nature of baseball which provides opportunities that can be predicted unlike any other sport.

I've found when the statistical filters are combined with the situational opportunities....magic happens.The backtest is pure, meaning the system lends itself to accurate back tests using closing lines.

The system maximizes "dog" opportunities. Approximately 100 picks per season (80-120) for a nice steady and enjoyable flow maximizing dog value when possible. It runs from April to mid Sept.


MLB Super Dog System Back Test

2009 +37.8 Units  (AL +24 units /  NL +13.8 units)
2010 +29.56 Units (AL + 8.01 units / NL + 21.55 units)
2011 + 22.18 Units  (AL + 21.58 units / NL + .6 unit)
==================

2010 MLB Season Records

MLB Computer Picks +2.6 units

16-­11-­059.26%+­1300View



+2 Plus Factors  +1.05 unit

63-­46-­057.80%+­105View



+3 Plus Factors +18.05 units
55-­25-­068.75%+­$1805ViewView
+4 Plus Factors Contrarian Dogs   +16.67 units  Per email (4/8/10)      
14-7  67% +$1667

CBS (2 Game RL Chase) +7.63 units Admin'd by Rolltide
38-39 +7.63 (92 staked, 8.3% ROI)

Logical Approach System Tracking (Records to win 1 unit)
7/15 - 10/3 (Since All-Star Break)
HOME 155-71 (+33.25)
AWAY 105-114 (-36.22)
http://s1.zetaboards.com/MisterMJ_Sports/topic/3441473/7/ 

MJ's Run Line Chasers -13.4 units

Series 19-15 (-$1340) (-13.40 units)

MJ's Special Situation +1.6 units
3-­1-­075.00%+$­833View

========================================
2011 MLB Season Records

+ 2 Away Dogs <+151 +2.3 units (Add approximately + 6 units for season results with back test)
8-­8-­050.00%+­1160ViewView
MJ's Log App Home -4.7 units
9-­10-­047.37%-­2347ViewView
+3 Plus Factors -.7 units
29-­21-­058.00%-­359View
+4 Contrarian Dogs +.3 units
17-­18-­048.57%+­179ViewView
CBS (2 Game RL Chase) +3.13 units Admin'd by Rolltide
Series Record (11-6) +3.13
total staked 25, returned 28.13 = 12.5% ROI

MJ's Special Situations +3.08 units (Per sent email 8/28/11)
8-4 +1540 



Tuesday, November 1, 2011

NCAAB March Madness Tournament System Records

NCAAB March Madness Records

2009 Record
7-4 63%
http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=659904
2010 Record
6-­4-­0 60.00% View

2011 Record
4-­4-­0 50.00% -­200 View

NCAAB Home System II Overall Record 2009-2011 35-14 +71.4% ATS

This will be the third season for the NCAAB Home System II. Last season was 7-6 after a more spectacular season in 2010 going over 77% ATS with a 28-8 record.

This is a very select system that starts with Conference play in late December.

2010-11 NCAAB Home System II
7-­6-­0 53.85% +­200 View


09/10 Season

28-8 77.77% ATS
========================
The Home System II was found as a subset of last years NCAAB Lean System and is explained below.

NCAAB Lean System


2009-2010 SeasonWLTPctUnits
ATS Picks53-31-263.10%+9450
O/U Picks30-26-153.57%+700
All Picks83-57-359.29%+10150

http://contests.covers.com/SportsContests/profile.aspx?userID=342704&sportID=7&type=3

The Lean System record shown above, also had a sub group for the Home System II. The record was 28-8 77.77% ATS

NCAAB Home System I Overall Record 2008-11 37-20-3 +64.9% ATS

Two seasons in a row with +70 % ATS meant we were probably due for a pullback last year.

The three year record is 37-20-3 +64.9% ATS

This very select system starts with Conference Play in late December.



08/09 Season NCAAB Home System I 
 16-4 80% ATS
http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=659904

09/10 Season NCAAB Home System I

14-5-1 73.68% +850 View



2010-11 NCAAB Home System I
7-­11-­2 38.89% -­2550 View









MisterMJ's NBA Computer Picks 2007-2011 +62.3% ATS +$29,650

Last seasons 2010-2011 NBA season was the fourth +60% ATS season in a row, with the latest season being over 64% for the year.

MisterMJ's NBA Computer Picks
Overall Record 2007-2011 +62.3% ATS on 284 picks.
177-107 62.3%  +$29,650 +59.3 Units Flatbetting
  
2010-11 NBA COMPUTER PICKS (Documented at Wagerline)

18-­10-­0 64.29% +$­3500 View

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record
03/04/11 1-0-0 100.00% +500 Detail
02/24/11 1-0-0 100.00% +500 Detail
02/22/11 1-0-0 100.00% +500 Detail
02/16/11 1-0-0 100.00% +500 Detail
02/08/11 1-0-0 100.00% +500 Detail
02/05/11 1-0-0 100.00% +500 Detail
02/02/11 1-0-0 100.00% +500 Detail
01/31/11 0-1-0 0.00% -550 Detail
01/29/11 1-0-0 100.00% +500 Detail
01/26/11 0-1-0 0.00% -550 Detail
01/21/11 0-1-0 0.00% -550 Detail
01/19/11 1-0-0 100.00% +500 Detail
01/17/11 1-0-0 100.00% +500 Detail
01/14/11 0-1-0 0.00% -550 Detail
01/07/11 0-1-0 0.00% -550 Detail
01/01/11 1-0-0 100.00% +500 Detail
12/27/10 0-1-0 0.00% -550 Detail
12/21/10 0-1-0 0.00% -550 Detail
12/15/10 0-1-0 0.00% -550 Detail
12/14/10 1-0-0 100.00% +500 Detail
12/12/10 1-0-0 100.00% +500 Detail
12/07/10 1-0-0 100.00% +500 Detail
12/04/10 0-1-0 0.00% -550 Detail
12/01/10 0-1-0 0.00% -550 Detail
11/26/10 1-0-0 100.00% +500 Detail
11/14/10 1-0-0 100.00% +500 Detail
11/10/10 1-0-0 100.00% +500 Detail
11/06/10 1-0-0 100.00% +500 Detail
=========================================
NBA Computer Picks Yearly Breakdowns

09/10 NBA Computer Picks



14-9-0 60.87% +2050 View





 ------------------------------------------------
08/09 NBA Record
 
61-32-1 65.6% +25.8 Units

http://tinyurl.com/as2l49
-------------------------------------------------
07-08 NBA Record

84-56 60% + 22.4 units
(Picks documented in this forum : http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=531283)