Friday, October 15, 2010

NCAA Basketball Home System II 28-8 77.77% ATS

The Home System II

 09/10 Season

28-8 77.77% ATS
========================
The Home System II was found as a subset of last years NCAAB Lean System and is explained below.

NCAAB Lean System

2009-2010 SeasonWLTPctUnits
ATS Picks53-31-263.10%+9450
O/U Picks30-26-153.57%+700
All Picks83-57-359.29%+10150

http://contests.covers.com/SportsContests/profile.aspx?userID=342704&sportID=7&type=3

The Lean System record shown above, also had a sub group of home teams <-10 point spread. The record was 28-8 77.77% ATS

This will become it's own system in the future and will simply be called The Home System II to go along with our other NCAAB Home System which has a two year record well above 70% ATS.

 

NCAA Basketball Home System I 77% ATS

NCAAB Home System the last two seasons overall record
 
30-9 77% ATS

A very select and very successful NCAA Basketball system for 2 full seasons. 


This system starts with NCAA Conference play.

NCAAB Home System 08/09 Season 16-4 80% ATS
http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=659904

NCAAB Home System 09/10 Season
14-5-1 73.68% +850 View
 

MisterMJ's NBA Computer Picks System +62 % ATS

The NBA Computer Picks system is now entering it's fourth NBA season. 

There has never been a losing month...there has never been a losing year...and there has never been a year under 60% ATS. This has been a very robust and stable system, always solid...sometimes spectacular, nearly 66% ATS in 08/09 season on nearly 100 picks.

The long term record of 62.1 % ATS based on 256 picks over 3 full NBA seasons is unmatched. In addition to that...the lines and picks were documented at Wagerline and were always widely available and honest lines.In fact...most often...if you had a good off shore book...you could do better than most of my posted lines.

I am adamant about using fair lines for all of my systems whenever possible. If you can't re-create my results when you follow the picks...there is no point in doing this.

This system just plain works...year in...and year out. 


When I try to build long term, successful, repeatable, handicapping systems...this is the gold standard example that I shoot for.

NBA Computer Picks Overall Record Since 2007 Season

159-97 62.1% + 52.3 units +$26,150
http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=531283
======================================================
NBA Computer Picks Yearly Breakdowns

09/10 NBA Computer Picks


14-9-0 60.87% +2050 View
 ------------------------------------------------
08/09 NBA Record
 
61-32-1 65.6% +25.8 Units

http://tinyurl.com/as2l49
-------------------------------------------------
07-08 NBA Record

84-56 60% + 22.4 units
(Picks documented in this forum : http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=531283)







Thursday, September 2, 2010

NFL Pick 3

Overall, the NFL Pick 3 System has done very well...especially so, if you are willing to take me at my word about the 2007 seasons undocumented record. 

NFL Pick 3 Overall Record (2007, 2008 & 2009) 86-62-5 58.1% +$8500

Or the last 2 seasons (2008 & 2009) of documented picks together are 53-44-5 54.6% +$1900

At worst, this system has lost a few units of juice in 09 when it broke even at 24-24-3 and it has produced plus units 2 out of the past 3 seasons.

In 2007 it was spectacular, and I used it to take 2nd place in the Cappersmall Pick 3 NFL contest. That is what gave me the impetus to develop the system, and start tracking it that year.
================================================================
 NFL Computer Picks 07 Season (Pick 3)

33-18 64% $6600 (Not documented , for my information only)

NFL Computer Picks 08 Season (Pick 3)
29-20-2 59.18%+$3500 View 
http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?p=6338429#post6338429


NFL Computer Picks 09 Season (Pick 3)

24-24-350.00% -$1600


View
 http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=654544&page=18


NFL Pick 5 System Records

I did a screen grab of the NFL pick 5 Record for 2008. I'm not sure how long Covers will cache past contests.

Using the Pick 5 System , I came in 12th place out of 1556 contestants in Covers "Beat the Prez NFL Challenge"

NFL Pick 5 2008
51-32-261.45%+$7900View      


Date WLT Pct Net Units Record
12/28/08 4-1-0 80.00% +1450 Detail
12/21/08 2-1-0 66.67% +450 Detail
12/20/08 0-2-0 0.00% -1100 Detail
12/14/08 3-1-1 75.00% +950 Detail
12/08/08 0-1-0 0.00% -550 Detail
12/07/08 3-1-0 75.00% +950 Detail
11/30/08 1-3-0 25.00% -1150 Detail
11/27/08 1-0-0 100.00% +500 Detail
11/24/08 0-1-0 0.00% -550 Detail
11/23/08 3-1-0 75.00% +950 Detail
11/17/08 0-1-0 0.00% -550 Detail
11/16/08 3-1-0 75.00% +950 Detail
11/10/08 0-1-0 0.00% -550 Detail
11/09/08 2-2-0 50.00% -100 Detail
11/03/08 1-0-0 100.00% +500 Detail
11/02/08 2-2-0 50.00% -100 Detail
10/27/08 1-0-0 100.00% +500 Detail
10/26/08 3-1-0 75.00% +950 Detail
10/19/08 3-2-0 60.00% +400 Detail
10/12/08 4-1-0 80.00% +1450 Detail
10/05/08 4-1-0 80.00% +1450 Detail
09/28/08 1-4-0 20.00% -1700 Detail
09/21/08 4-1-0 80.00% +1450 Detail
09/14/08 2-2-1 50.00% -100 Detail
09/07/08 4-1-0 80.00% +1450 Detail

============================
 In 2009 the NFL Pick 5 did not do nearly as good as the 2008 season. The NFL Pick 3 and the NFL Pick 5 are exactly the same systems...but you get two more picks with the Pick5. In the future I am going to concentrate on just the NFL Pick 3. The NFL Pick 5 will be discontinued, in favor of the NFL Pick 3 which has a longer and better history.

NFL Pick 5 2009



38-42-5 47.50% -4100 View





 http://contests.covers.com/sportscontests/officeLeaders.aspx?ID=14922
Date WLT Pct Net Units Record
01/03/10 1-3-1 25.00% -1150 Detail
12/27/09 2-2-1 50.00% -100 Detail
12/21/09 0-1-0 0.00% -550 Detail
12/20/09 2-2-0 50.00% -100 Detail
12/13/09 2-3-0 40.00% -650 Detail
12/07/09 0-1-0 0.00% -550 Detail
12/06/09 3-1-0 75.00% +950 Detail
11/30/09 1-0-0 100.00% +500 Detail
11/29/09 1-1-1 50.00% -50 Detail
11/26/09 1-0-0 100.00% +500 Detail
11/22/09 2-3-0 40.00% -650 Detail
11/16/09 1-0-0 100.00% +500 Detail
11/15/09 0-2-1 0.00% -1100 Detail
11/12/09 1-0-0 100.00% +500 Detail
11/08/09 2-3-0 40.00% -650 Detail
11/02/09 0-1-0 0.00% -550 Detail
11/01/09 1-3-0 25.00% -1150 Detail
10/26/09 1-0-0 100.00% +500 Detail
10/25/09 2-1-1 66.67% +450 Detail
10/19/09 1-0-0 100.00% +500 Detail
10/18/09 3-1-0 75.00% +950 Detail
10/12/09 0-1-0 0.00% -550 Detail
10/11/09 2-2-0 50.00% -100 Detail
10/05/09 1-0-0 100.00% +500 Detail
10/04/09 2-2-0 50.00% -100 Detail
09/27/09 2-3-0 40.00% -650 Detail
09/21/09 0-1-0 0.00% -550 Detail
09/20/09 2-2-0 50.00% -100 Detail
09/13/09 2-3-0 40.00% -650 Detai







Wednesday, September 1, 2010

NFL EMO's Record & Explanation

NFL EMO's Record & Explanation

The NFL EMO System is a contrarian system based on my own set of Emotional factors. The theory is that human emotion is predictable...and the human response to certain factors is predictable.

The NFL season is very short...each game is very much like a battle...the season as a whole is a war. It is a very very emotional and violent game...with many ups and downs over the season.

So far...these EMO factors have done a good job of predicting ATS winners...based on predictable patterns of human behavior triggered by game events and outcomes.

EMO's can only start in week #2 because the first week of regular season is needed as the first set up for any picks. For whatever reason...they do not seem to do well after about week #12. (My guess is that teams fall out of playoff races...and this changes emotional feedback as some teams lose hope for the season, and others lose an edge locking in playoff spots early.)

I make every attempt to document any and ALL of my system picks for permanent record keeping.

The 2009 EMO record was documented at Wagerline through week 17 for data gathering...but the record should only count through week # 12 as that is the cutoff for wagering on these picks.

2009 EMO Record Week # 2 - #12
21-16 +$2150 57.5% ATS


11/29/09 2-1-0 66.67% +450 Detail
11/26/09 1-0-0 100.00% +500 Detail
11/22/09 0-2-0 0.00% -1100 Detail
11/15/09 0-2-0 0.00% -1100 Detail
11/12/09 1-0-0 100.00% +500 Detail
11/08/09 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
11/01/09 3-1-0 75.00% +950 Detail
10/25/09 2-1-0 66.67% +450 Detail
10/18/09 3-1-0 75.00% +950 Detail
10/12/09 0-1-0 0.00% -550 Detail
10/11/09 1-2-0 33.33% -600 Detail
10/05/09 1-0-0 100.00% +500 Detail
10/04/09 3-1-0 75.00% +950 Detail
09/28/09 1-0-0 100.00% +500 Detail
09/27/09 1-2-0 33.33% -600 Detail
09/21/09 0-1-0 0.00% -550 Detail
09/20/09 3-1-0 75.00% +950 Detail

http://contests.covers.com/sportscontests/officeRecordsByDate.aspx?type=2&interval=overall&contestID=15077&ur=342704&sportID=1

 Posted at the RX Forum:
http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=654544

The 2008 EMO Record Week #2-#12 was
33-18 64.7% ATS +$6600

Unfortunately as an experimental system it was not documented at Wagerline...the record is using midweek Wagerline odds and from my personal notes as the EMO's were used in the Pick 3 and Pick 5 Systems as an indicator.

I also have a 2007 EMO record filed away on hard copy...which will be posted but it was +60% ATS Week 2-12 as well.